Updated PECOTA: Orioles will finish 15 games out

[Frobby]

BP has updated its projected standings based on its PECOTA projections:

BOS 94-68

NYY 92-70

TBR 91-71

BAL 79-83

TOR 71-91

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

A season like that would be pretty interesting for the O's all the way through August. Heck, even September would be interesting, with the O's playing a lot of games that month vs. the 3 teams vying for the playoffs.

By the way, I still feel these projections have a strong disconnect between OPS and runs scored.

[now]

The most impressive stat to me is the .458 SLG - tied with NYY and BOS for second in the league (Texas first) and just ahead of Tampa. That's good progress on the offensive side - especially considering the budget disparity.

[Satyr3206]

Second most runs allowed in the AL. Obviously they don't think the pitching will be any better.

[Frobby]

Second most runs allowed in the AL. Obviously they don't think the pitching will be any better.

So you don't think allowing.75 fewer runs would be "any better?". I'd call that significant progress.

[Moose Milligan]

How can PECOTA not know that Boston and NY will win 100 games each this year?

[Satyr3206]

So you don't think allowing.75 fewer runs would be "any better?". I'd call that significant progress.

I think the progress will be better barring injuries. Somewhere in the middle of the pack.

[SilentJames]

How can PECOTA not know that Boston and NY will win 100 games each this year?

Why you gotta do a thing?

[scOtt]

BP has updated its projected standings based on its PECOTA projections:

BOS 94-68

NYY 92-70

TBR 91-71

BAL 79-83

TOR 71-91

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

A season like that would be pretty interesting for the O's all the way through August. Heck, even September would be interesting, with the O's playing a lot of games that month vs. the 3 teams vying for the playoffs.

By the way, I still feel these projections have a strong disconnect between OPS and runs scored.

I see that as the absolute, average, meh of our moving forward. If we finished with 79 wins, I would be happy, and sad, but still hopeful for 2011.

I picked the opposite record, 83-79. I think we have enough smart young players to perform above expectations. The parts are greater than the sum. Then the sum will be greater than the parts. If you get my drift...

The most impressive stat to me is the .458 SLG - tied with NYY and BOS for second in the league (Texas first) and just ahead of Tampa. That's good progress on the offensive side - especially considering the budget disparity.

I've said before... I'll take 6 guys with the real potential to hit 20 HRs over two guys with the potential to hit 30+, every day and twice on Sunday.

[DrungoHazewood]

How can PECOTA not know that Boston and NY will win 100 games each this year?

I laugh at any system that can't see the obvious: Tampa's window has closed and ain't nothing gonna open it again.

[Old#5fan]

Second most runs allowed in the AL. Obviously they don't think the pitching will be any better.

Why should they when Guthrie is below average, Millwood could very well fall that way as well, Bergenson is coming off a serious leg injury and now has another injury hurdle to overcome, and Matusz and Tillman are essentially unknown rookies yet to complete anything close to a full major league season?

Nobody should expect anything else if you are objective about it. The pitching could be every bit as bad as last season on at least in the neighborhood.

[incubus]

I concur Drungo. Tampa may have been able to do something last year, if The MFY's hadn't squelched that opportunity for them.

[scOtt]

Why should they when Guthrie is below average, Millwood could very well fall that way as well, Bergenson is coming off a serious leg injury and now has another injury hurdle to overcome, and Matusz and Tillman are essentially unknown rookies yet to complete anything close to a full major league season?

Nobody should expect anything else if you are objective about it. The pitching could be every bit as bad as last season on at least in the neighborhood.

Since I can still see your posts... truce. For like 5 minutes.

Fair question.

What did you think of Jim Palmer in 1965?

[JTrea81]

I laugh at any system that can't see the obvious: Tampa's window has closed and ain't nothing gonna open it again.

Might want to take a look at this thread...

It's going to be pretty hard for them to compete with a sub $60 million dollar payroll in the future...

They might have one more year, but then they are done.

[Old#5fan]

Since I can still see your posts... truce. For like 5 minutes.

Fair question.

What did you think of Jim Palmer in 1965?

I thought Palmer was tall, lanky and has a nice pitching motion. I also was mad at him because he spent nearly a minute explaining why he didn't have time to sign my autograph while walking into old RFK stadium before a game with the Senator whereas the pitcher walking just ahead of him (John Miller) never said a word but scribbled his John Hancock on a piece of paper for me. Ultimately, I got a guy's autograph who never made it in the majors and a bunch of baloney from a future HOFer. How's that for an answer?:laughlol:

[scOtt]

I thought Palmer was tall, lanky and has a nice pitching motion. I also was mad at him because he spent nearly a minute explaining why he didn't have time to sign my autograph while walking into old RFK stadium before a game with the Senator whereas the pitcher walking just ahead of him (John Miller) never said a word but scribbled his John Hancock on a piece of paper for me. Ultimately, I got a guy's autograph who never made it in the majors and a bunch of baloney from a future HOFer. How's that for an answer?:laughlol:

Reps given.

But I'm sure you see what I'm asking. Did you have the same Doom and Gloom predictions as you do for EVERY one of our young guys as you profess on the OH?

I mean seriously! Did you believe they were the same POS team as you see heading into 2010? Every young guy failing, and veteran Nick too?

And if not... what exactly made you so pathetically jaded? I mean... I've seen some sad fans over the years but you take the cake!